Insights provided by Carmela Bell, ResortQuest Broker
Okaloosa and Walton County Data
For Okaloosa and Walton County residential real estate market indicators, the first half of 2019 was compared to 2018.
- Closed Sales Condos – Down 12%, homes up 9%
- Median Price – Same for both condos and homes
- Average Price – Down slightly (about 2%) for both homes and condos (condo 2.7%, home 1.9%)
- Active Inventory – No significant change except in the submarket of homes in Okaloosa County which is significantly down by 14%
- Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) – MSI is an estimate of the number of months it will take to deplete the current inventory given recent sales rates. The benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Anything higher is traditionally a buyers’ market, and anything lower a sellers’ market. All markets are balanced at about the 5.5 months of inventory not favoring either buyer or seller, but it is stable. The one exception is Okaloosa county homes which only has 2.6 months of inventory indicating a sellers’ market.
Edsel Charles Forecast – 8 county area market study Baldwin to Gulf Counties
Since 2010, the number of started subdivisions (down 308/25% lower), newly finished unoccupied homes (74% lower), and homesite count (down 19,048/46% lower) have all fallen. This indicates a home site shortage. The total market demand for home sites in the next 5 years is 44,294. This total broken down by county is:
- 11,630 needed in Baldwin County
- 7,324 needed in Walton County
- 7,568 needed in Santa Rosa County
- 3,888 needed in Okaloosa County
Edsel ranks in the top 10 largest new home demand locations including:
- Walton County Gulf Side along 30A – price range $425 to $625, The current supply is 27 and the 12-month demand is 153. Same area price range $625 to $925. The current supply is 29 and the 12-month demand 153.
- Crestview $225 to $275K. The current supply is 19 and the 12-month demand 140.
Modest Downturn Coming
Typically it will not go over a decade before seeing a downturn. You can expect a slowdown in real estate starting May of 2020. This is due to the fact that mortgage rates are expected to increase to just over 6%. You can expect home prices to drop as follows:
- May 2020 – 3.5%
- May of 2021 – 5%
- May of 2022 – 4%
- May of 2023 – 1.5%
This is a total of 14% in 4 years. You can expect the lowest point to be in 2022-2023. By 2028-2030 prices should be back to the prices of today. The next significant decline is expected in 14-15 years (2033-2034).